Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 128,547
2 South Dakota 122,803
3 Rhode Island 110,164
4 Utah 109,171
5 Arizona 105,691
6 Tennessee 105,332
7 Wisconsin 102,320
8 Iowa 102,155
9 Oklahoma 99,642
10 Arkansas 99,552
11 Nebraska 99,373
12 Kansas 96,750
13 Alabama 94,847
14 Indiana 94,243
15 Mississippi 93,181
16 Idaho 91,914
17 Nevada 91,179
18 Wyoming 90,345
19 Illinois 89,729
20 Montana 88,783
21 South Carolina 87,554
22 Louisiana 87,385
23 California 85,203
24 Georgia 84,638
25 Texas 84,519
26 New Mexico 83,770
27 Kentucky 83,438
28 Minnesota 82,245
29 Florida 81,228
30 Delaware 81,110
31 Missouri 81,105
32 New Jersey 79,463
33 Ohio 77,570
34 Massachusetts 77,057
35 Alaska 74,427
36 North Carolina 74,344
37 New York 74,238
38 Connecticut 72,085
39 Colorado 69,763
40 West Virginia 68,337
41 Pennsylvania 67,125
42 Michigan 61,516
43 Virginia 60,141
44 Maryland 59,159
45 District of Columbia 52,708
46 New Hampshire 49,069
47 Washington 41,957
48 Puerto Rico 40,165
49 Oregon 34,284
50 Maine 29,930
51 Vermont 19,758
52 Hawaii 18,363

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Texas 867
2 Rhode Island 713
3 Connecticut 652
4 North Carolina 628
5 Arkansas 570
6 Arizona 490
7 Kansas 484
8 South Carolina 479
9 Kentucky 441
10 Georgia 420
11 New York 411
12 Oklahoma 405
13 Louisiana 402
14 Alabama 368
15 California 362
16 Florida 360
17 Utah 351
18 Massachusetts 342
19 New Jersey 336
20 Virginia 334
21 Delaware 311
22 Ohio 311
23 Iowa 306
24 Tennessee 294
25 Montana 289
26 Pennsylvania 289
27 Idaho 278
28 West Virginia 273
29 Colorado 267
30 Mississippi 259
31 Nevada 258
32 New Mexico 252
33 New Hampshire 251
34 Missouri 236
35 Indiana 231
36 Nebraska 230
37 Maine 225
38 Illinois 224
39 Wyoming 216
40 Alaska 210
41 Wisconsin 207
42 Vermont 194
43 Michigan 192
44 Oregon 172
45 Maryland 166
46 Washington 163
47 District of Columbia 154
48 South Dakota 146
49 North Dakota 133
50 Minnesota 115
51 Puerto Rico 108
52 Hawaii 50

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 2,442
2 New York 2,245
3 Massachusetts 2,133
4 Rhode Island 2,074
5 Mississippi 2,069
6 South Dakota 2,014
7 Connecticut 2,007
8 Louisiana 1,937
9 North Dakota 1,898
10 Arizona 1,867
11 Pennsylvania 1,719
12 Illinois 1,690
13 Alabama 1,672
14 Arkansas 1,651
15 New Mexico 1,592
16 Iowa 1,576
17 Michigan 1,565
18 Indiana 1,498
19 Tennessee 1,455
20 South Carolina 1,436
21 Nevada 1,420
22 Kansas 1,336
23 Georgia 1,332
24 Texas 1,317
25 District of Columbia 1,312
26 Florida 1,257
27 Missouri 1,220
28 Montana 1,220
29 Maryland 1,194
30 Delaware 1,160
31 West Virginia 1,148
32 Minnesota 1,117
33 Wisconsin 1,116
34 Wyoming 1,078
35 California 1,073
36 Nebraska 1,048
37 Colorado 1,000
38 Idaho 979
39 Ohio 977
40 Oklahoma 923
41 North Carolina 917
42 Kentucky 910
43 New Hampshire 791
44 Virginia 770
45 Washington 586
46 Puerto Rico 580
47 Utah 529
48 Oregon 476
49 Maine 466
50 Alaska 367
51 Hawaii 290
52 Vermont 286

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Alabama 35
2 South Carolina 22
3 Arizona 21
4 Montana 21
5 Tennessee 18
6 Missouri 17
7 Wyoming 16
8 Delaware 13
9 Kansas 13
10 Rhode Island 13
11 Arkansas 12
12 California 12
13 Mississippi 12
14 Georgia 11
15 Nevada 11
16 Texas 11
17 Connecticut 10
18 Louisiana 10
19 Maine 9
20 Oklahoma 9
21 Florida 8
22 New Mexico 8
23 New York 8
24 Alaska 7
25 Iowa 7
26 New Jersey 7
27 North Carolina 7
28 Ohio 7
29 Pennsylvania 7
30 District of Columbia 6
31 Kentucky 6
32 Massachusetts 6
33 West Virginia 6
34 Indiana 5
35 Maryland 5
36 Idaho 4
37 Illinois 4
38 New Hampshire 4
39 Virginia 4
40 Washington 4
41 Michigan 3
42 Oregon 3
43 Utah 3
44 Wisconsin 3
45 Colorado 2
46 Minnesota 2
47 Nebraska 2
48 Puerto Rico 2
49 Vermont 2
50 South Dakota 1
51 Hawaii 0
52 North Dakota 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Crowley Colorado 299,786 1 99
Chattahoochee Georgia 252,223 2 99
Dewey South Dakota 235,574 3 99
Lake Tennessee 235,462 4 99
Lincoln Arkansas 235,104 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 122,747 232 92
Richland South Carolina 87,406 1350 57
York South Carolina 80,575 1702 45
Orange California 78,254 1811 42
Pierce Washington 39,287 2898 7

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Gove Kansas 8,346 1 99
Jerauld South Dakota 7,948 2 99
Buffalo South Dakota 6,626 3 99
Dickey North Dakota 6,568 4 99
Iron Wisconsin 6,506 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 1,093 1892 39
Richland South Carolina 1,073 1927 38
Orange California 1,007 2026 35
York South Carolina 947 2102 33
Pierce Washington 527 2650 15

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons